Transfers: "Amounts are based on objective criteria translatable into a statistical model" (CIES)

"In 2019, for the first time ever, football clubs spent more than €10bn on transfer fees. This figure has more than tripled over the past decade in parallel with the increase of club revenues. Contrary to what is often put forward by persons outside the football world, the amounts for transfer indemnities are not irrational. They are fixed by market actors based on criteria which are for the most part objective, and thus translatable into a statistical model," stated the CIES Football Observatory, in its monthly report published on 16/03/2020.

In this report, CIES presents its "scientific method" for estimating potential transfer values based on previous transfer amounts. This model is based on "variables" classified into three groups:
• variables relating to players: remaining contractual duration, age, international status, career progression, sports performance (minutes of play, goals, assists, dribbles, assists, etc.);
• variables relating to clubs: sporting level and economic level;
• contextual variables: the season in which the transfer took place.

"Each of the variables…