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Transfers: value of European Top 5 players would drop by 28% if the season did not resume (CIES)

Paris - Published Thursday, April 2, 2020 - 16:40 - #179681 The total transfer value of players in the European Top 5 (BundesligaBundesligaGerman professional football first division. 18 clubs., LaLiga SantanderLaLiga SantanderSpanish first division (20 clubs); naming rights contract to the bank Santander for 2016-2019, Ligue 1 ConforamaLigue 1 ConforamaFrench professional football 1st division (20 clubs). Conforama (distribution of furniture and household appliances), title sponsor for 2017-2020 (€7m per season)., Premier LeaguePremier LeagueTop English professional football division. 20 clubs., Serie A TIMSerie A TIMItalian first division. 20 clubs.) would decrease by 28% (from €32.7bn to €23.4bn) in the event that no more matches are played in 2019-20 and no contracts are renewed by 30/06/2020, according to the CIES Football Observatory in its weekly post published on 30/03/2020.

CIES ranks the 98 clubs in the European Top 5 according to the potential loss in transfer value for their squads between 11/03 and 30/06/2020. Two French clubs appear at the extremities of the ranking. "The greatest potential percentage loss per club was measured for Olympique de Marseille: -38%. Conversely, the lowest one was recorded for another French Ligue 1 team: Stade Brestois (-16%)," observed CIES.

Of the 24 clubs likely to see their squad lose more than 30 % of its value if the season does not resume due to the Coronavirus pandemic, there are eight Italian clubs, seven Spanish, four English, three French and only two German clubs.
V. Rongier (FRA) and M. Sanson (FRA), players of Olympique de Marseille - © OM
V. Rongier (FRA) and M. Sanson (FRA), players of Olympique de Marseille - © OM

Transfers: Top 20 clubs according to potential loss of player transfer values in the event of the 2019-20 season being cancelled

  • To establish this ranking, CIES has only taken the 20 players with the highest transfer values into account for each club.

CIES : « 20 players with the highest values per club (€m), if no matches played and no contract extension » - © CIES Football Observatory

  • "The extent of the decrease varies according to several factors such as the players’ age, contract duration, career path and recent performance. The greatest loss in relative terms concerns ageing footballers with short-term contracts who played fewer matches during current season than in the previous one," explained CIES on 30/03/2020. 
  • "As matter of example, Paul Pogba's (FRA) estimated transfer value would almost halve from €65m to €35m," added the Football Observatory.

Transfers: "Amounts are based on objective criteria translatable into a statistical model" (CIES)

CIES : player variables model - © CIES Football Observatory

  • "In 2019, for the first time ever, football clubs spent more than €10bn on transfer fees. This figure has more than tripled over the past decade in parallel with the increase of club revenues. Contrary to what is often put forward by persons outside the football world, the amounts for transfer indemnities are not irrational. They are fixed by market actors based on criteria which are for the most part objective, and thus translatable into a statistical model," stated the CIES Football Observatory, in its monthly report published on 16/03/2020.
  • In this report, CIES presents its "scientific method" for estimating potential transfer values based on previous transfer amounts. This model is based on "variables" classified into three groups:
    • variables relating to players: remaining contractual duration, age, international status, career progression, sports performance (minutes of play, goals, assists, dribbles, assists, etc.);
    • variables relating to clubs: sporting level and economic level;
    • contextual variables: the season in which the transfer took place.
  • "Each of the variables contributes in a significant manner (<5% margin of error) in determining the values of football players. The strong correlation measured between the sums estimated and those actually paid indicates that the variables used reflect particularly well the way in which the market actors negotiate fees. In specific cases, particular circumstances can nevertheless have a singular importance," explained CIES.

Centre International d'Etude du Sport (CIES)

Profile n° 969, created on 06/02/14 at 18:33 - updated on 17/02/20 at 11:30

Centre International d'Etude du Sport (CIES)

Activity: a foundation created by FIFA, The University of Neuchâtel, the Town and the Administritive region of Neuchâtel, as a means of producing an indpendent scientific institute.
• Founded: 1995
Headquarters: Neuchâtel (Switzerland)
• Chairman of the Board: Pierre Cornu
• Director: Denis Oswald
• General Secretary: Vincent Schatzmann
• The CIES observatory, founded in 2005 by Raffaele Poli and Loïc Ravenel, is a research group composed of experts in social sciences and specialists in the analysis of sporting statistics who provide services for govermental bodies but also in the domain of questionnaires and surverys, in the gathering and processing of data, in the publication of data, in business intelligence and in the production of reports.
The observatory facilitates monthly studies with regards to the training of players, their performances, transfer values, etc.



Centre International d'Etude du Sport (CIES)
Avenue DuPeyrou 1
2000 Neuchâtel - SWITZERLAND
Telephone : +41 32 718 39 00
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